Predicting Future Urban Growth Limits Using ArcView Desktop GIS Software

Urban economics dictate that cities must grow to maintain their vitality. Small cities increase their population and economic base, thereby expanding their city limits. Large cities manage growth so that expansion is controlled, avoiding real estate and economic depressions. Former Albuquerque Mayor David Rusk argues in Cities Without Suburbs that cities with aggressive growth strategies prosper while land locked cities lose vitality, economic base and eventually, population. The City of Madison, Wisconsin is on the threshold of being prohibited from growing by its’ neighbors. Using ArcView software, an “Annexation Potential” formula was developed to identify and analyze growth limits, generating an Ultimate Growth Area map. INTRODUCTION My colleagues and I have often remarked while discussing topical planning issues facing our municipality that it is now possible to envision the ultimate growth limits of our city. Urban economics dictate that cities must grow to maintain their vitality. Small cities concentrate upon increasing their economic (commercial and industrial) base and population (housing stock) thereby necessitating expansion of the city limits. Large cities focus upon managing their growth so that they do not expand too fast or too far which could create real estate and economic depressions (Eldredge, 1967, pg. 157-166). In his book Cities Without Suburbs, David Rusk (1993) puts forth an argument that cities which have an open, aggressive annexation policy grow and prosper whereas those cities which are “hemmed in” by incorporated suburbs or lack the political and legal tools to expand their boundaries in response to internal needs presented by their citizens become stagnant and lose vitality, economic base and eventually, population City of Madison Development Plans The City of Madison, Wisconsin adopted their Peripheral Area Development Plan in 1990 to address these issues. This plan states in part: Χ Madison’s need to plan for future urban development and long-term city growth begins with the expectation of continued employment, population and housing increases in the Dane County region; Χ Most of this increase will be accommodated through growth of the regions cities and villages; and Χ The City of Madison expects to continue to have a significant share of regional and Urban Area economic and residential growth. Indeed, City of Madison policy makers have publicly stated concerns on numerous occasions when considering annexation petitions or potential growth limiting exurban developments that the City of Madison may, some day, become surrounded by incorporated municipalities similar to Milwaukee and other cities. This presents a public policy and planning dilemma: cities need to grow and expand to preserve their vitality and economic well being while environmental concerns and urban sprawl control seem to call for strict growth